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Condo Resales Below Zonal Value: The Data
In our last post, I wrote that some condo resales in Metro Manila have started closing below zonal value. This is the data behind that line.
We matched 346 secondary-market condo resales in 78 Metro Manila buildings, from January 2019 to August 2026, with the BIR zonal value that was in force on the day each one sold.
Under the old zonal values, 28% of resales closed below zonal, and the typical deal sold about 10% above it. Under the new values that took effect from 2022 onward, half of resales closed below zonal, and the typical deal sold right at it. When a unit did sell below zonal, it was usually by around 12%.
This fits what we argued before. Each zonal revision gave sellers a higher number to hold onto, but it didn’t give buyers any more money to spend. Buyers stopped following, and now about half of resales close below the government’s own valuation.
A few notes on the numbers. Makati, Mandaluyong, Pasig, Taguig and Quezon City revised their schedules at different times between 2021 and 2024, so deals from 2022 and 2023 are a mix of old and new values. We also left out buildings that had no named row in the older schedules. Their older deals sold far above zonal, so the “before” share is probably understated. This covers condos only, since house-and-lot prices include the house while zonal value covers just the land.
Source: JPRE Research closed transactions; BIR zonal value schedules.
