Every cycle feels different when you’re inside it. The stories change. The headlines change. The reasons always sound new. But step back, and the pattern becomes familiar. Periods of easy money lead to rising prices. Rising prices lead to confidence. Confidence leads to leverage. And somewhere along the way, risk gets ignored. Until something shifts. — The Philippine market today is not facing the same structural risks as past crises. Banks are better regulated. Currency risk

In the early 1990s, the Philippine property market was booming. Developers were building. Capital was flowing. And dollar loans made everything look cheaper. Then something broke— not in the Philippines… but in Thailand. A currency peg failed. The Baht collapsed. Capital fled emerging markets. And in a matter of months, the Philippine peso followed. From Php 26 to Php 42 per US dollar. That was all it took. Because while revenues stayed in pesos… debt was in dollars. Suddenly

Everyone talks about real estate like it only goes up. History says otherwise. Japan was once the blueprint of economic dominance. Low interest rates, aggressive lending, and rising property prices created one of the biggest real estate bubbles in history. Then policy tightened. And everything unwound. Companies defaulted. Markets crashed. Property prices collapsed. Decades later, the story still isn’t over. Because while prime areas recovered… the broader market never fully

Decades ago, there was a small store that sold milk. At the time, nearly all milk came from a single importer sourcing from NZ. Most distributors bought from the same source and sold at similar prices. Except for one store. This shop sold milk significantly cheaper, often even below what others paid for it. Naturally, people bought from them. The big distributors noticed their sales dropping and complained: “Why are they getting better prices?” The answer: they weren’t. Every

I was speaking with a broker who’s been in the industry since the mid-90s. He told me: “What we’re going through now feels worse than the Asian Financial Crisis.” That’s a strong statement. But is it actually true? Disclaimer: What I know about the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) is secondhand—based on research, industry stories, and conversations with veterans. So if you lived through the AFC and see gaps here, feel free to jump in. What the AFC actually looked like + Office la

Following up on yesterday’s post...so I walked into the BPI branch across the street and asked if they offered safety deposit boxes. They said yes. And apparently, I got lucky. A client had just terminated their lease, so one box became available. The only one. The teller mentioned that vacancies are rare, and most boxes stay occupied for years. The size was 10 inches wide, 24 inches deep, and about 3 inches high. Just right for real estate documents. You can even fit some je

Can you “securitize” real estate in the Philippines? A common idea in real estate is this: what if you could pool money from hundreds—or even thousands—of investors to buy a single property? Before anything else, let’s define the term. "Securitization" is the process of turning an asset into financial instruments (“securities”) that can be sold to multiple investors. In practice: + You set up a company (SPV) + The company buys the property + Investors buy shares in the compan

A Thought Experiment in Real Estate (and Daydreaming) The US Powerball—the American equivalent of the Philippine Lottery—has climbed to a staggering USD 1.1 Bn as of December 14, 2025. But as with all lotteries, the headline number is fiction. If you actually win and choose the lump-sum payout, after US federal taxes (and assuming you’re in a no-state-tax jurisdiction), what lands in your hands is roughly: USD 275–340 Mn net or equivalently Php 15–19 Bn Still absurdly life-ch

Are developers legally required to deliver the title within six months? No. Many people recall a supposed “6-month rule” under Presidential Decree No. 957 (Subdivision and Condo Buyers’ Protective Decree). But that memory is usually misplaced. What PD 957 actually says, under Sec. 25, is this: “The owner or developer shall deliver the title of the lot or unit to the buyer upon full payment of the lot or unit…” Once fully paid, the developer must initiate the transfer and deli

Why do some developers take forever to process title transfers—when an individual doing it alone can wrap things up in 3 months? It’s one of the great mysteries of Philippine real estate...but the reasons, while frustrating, are surprisingly simple: 1. The Batch-Processing Bottleneck Developers don’t process titles one-by-one; they move in batches. If their internal rule is “start processing once 50 units are sold,” and you happen to be Buyer No. 1… congratulations, you’re no