THE VALUATION PROBLEM

A client recently asked if I could prepare a market report comparing property prices in two neighboring towns in Bulacan—areas being reshaped by several major developments:

+ The Philippine Arena and the INC estate in Bocaue

+ The upcoming New Manila International Airport

+ The Northrail project, with a planned station in Bocaue

The client’s actual concern was very practical.

They own a former agricultural parcel—several hectares, idle for over a decade—located just a few hundred meters from the Philippine Arena. The area is clearly transitioning from agricultural to commercial.

Lately, they’ve been receiving feelers from informal brokers—but with wildly different price indications… or none at all.

So the obvious question came up:

Are there reliable price benchmarks for land like this?

Asking prices? Offer prices? Closed deals?

Unfortunately, there isn’t reliable market data for that area—and I don’t think anyone truly has.

The only publicly available reference point would be zonal values, which may or may not reflect real market behavior. And even if actual “closed” transaction data existed, land pricing in emerging areas like this is driven less by comparables—and more by buyer perception. In markets shaped by future infrastructure and long-term optionality, value is often subjective.

I’ve seen this play out many times. Even after presenting actual closed transaction prices, sellers often revert to extremely high online asking prices—which are a poor basis for valuation.

In one case, I brought a developer to a beachfront property and disclosed that there was already an offer 25% below the owner’s asking price. Despite this, the developer submitted a bid at just 30% of the owner’s asking price.

That’s the reality in a market without transparent data: price becomes an opinion, not a fact.

So what’s the most practical strategy?

Price the property on the high side, actively expose it to the market, and let real buyer feedback—not guesswork—determine where the price should eventually settle.

That’s how true market value reveals itself in a world without public data.

Hopefully, this changes with RPVARA.